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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 84

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to HOU 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 42 for 1 yard (52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP