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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SD
30.6%
KC
69.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 18
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SD

No players on the report.

KC

Jamaal Charles RB Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 27
–
KC 33

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 FG KC (11:55) 5-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. SD 0 – KC 3
  • Q1 08:30 TD LAC (8:30) 28-M.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – KC 3
  • Q2 14:10 TD LAC (14:10) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – KC 3
  • Q2 07:59 TD LAC (7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 39-D.Woodhead for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 20 – KC 3
  • Q3 06:06 FG LAC (6:06) 2-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SD 24 – KC 3
  • Q3 02:53 TD KC (2:53) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 24 – KC 9
  • Q4 13:27 FG LAC (13:27) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SD 27 – KC 10
  • Q4 09:23 TD KC (9:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 19-J.Maclin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 27 – KC 16
  • Q4 03:12 FG KC (3:12) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. SD 27 – KC 20
  • Q4 01:11 TD KC (1:11) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SD 27 – KC 26
  • Q5 09:59 TD KC (9:59) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SD 27 – KC 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (11:55) 5-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 35%

    (6:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LAC 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:04) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to KC 25, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 25 yards to LAC 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-T.Hill.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (12:35) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to KC 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 32 for 19 yards (97-J.Attaochu; 57-J.Brown). PENALTY on KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 14 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to KC 46, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at KC 45 for 1 yard (21-E.Murray).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (6:06) 2-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 12 for 13 yards (26-C.Hayward).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (13:27) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 58%

    (11:25) 2-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 28%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West pushed ob at LAC 41 for 7 yards (57-J.Brown).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 23 for 14 yards (58-T.Williams).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (3:12) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:59) 8-D.Kaser punts 17 yards to LAC 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 57-D.Alexander to LAC 42 for no gain.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:08) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to KC 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 30 for 13 yards (25-D.Stuckey).