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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model