Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 93

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

(10:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to KC 46, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at KC 45 for 1 yard (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model