Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(:08) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to KC 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 30 for 13 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -1.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model