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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.57 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model