4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 25 yards to LAC 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model