4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 2-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model