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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to KC 25, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -1.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP