4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West pushed ob at LAC 41 for 7 yards (57-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model