Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(1:59) 8-D.Kaser punts 17 yards to LAC 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 57-D.Alexander to LAC 42 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model