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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 2-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP