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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model