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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LAC 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.65 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP