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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 12 for 13 yards (26-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model