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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Monday 2015-11-23 · 20:30 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
32.6%
NE
67.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.282 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.122 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

BUF 21
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BUF

Kyle Williams DT Out Knee
Richie Incognito G Questionable Shoulder
Cyrus Kouandjio T Probable Knee

NE

Justin Coleman CB Out Hand
Jamie Collins LB Out Illness
Julian Edelman WR Out Foot
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Toe
Tre' Jackson G Questionable Knee
Keshawn Martin WR Questionable Hamstring
Sebastian Vollmer T Questionable Concussion
Jabaal Sheard DE Probable Ankle
Alan Branch DT Probable Elbow
Chandler Jones DE Probable Abdomen
Shaquille Mason G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 13
–
NE 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:33 FG NE (7:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. BUF 0 – NE 3
  • Q2 09:32 FG BUF (9:32) 2-D.Carpenter 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – NE 3
  • Q2 00:19 TD NE (:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28-White 1st NFL TD. BUF 3 – NE 9
  • Q3 10:40 TD BUF (10:40) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 9 – NE 10
  • Q3 06:00 TD NE (6:00) (No Huddle) 28-J.White right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-55-J.Hughes, Defensive Offside, declined. BUF 10 – NE 16
  • Q3 00:50 FG NE (:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. BUF 10 – NE 20
  • Q4 03:34 FG BUF (3:34) 2-D.Carpenter 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – NE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 7 yards (81-M.Easley). BUF-81-M.Easley was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 92%

    (7:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 20%

    (2:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 26 yards to NE 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-36-J.Meeks.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

    (:12) 6-R.Allen punts 31 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 64%

    (9:32) 2-D.Carpenter 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:18) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-53-E.Martin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 59 yards to NE 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 13 for 6 yards (27-Du.Williams).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:48) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to BUF 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (:50) 2-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 58%

    (12:39) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:37) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 37 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to NE 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 36 for 21 yards (53-N.Bradham; 36-J.Meeks).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to NE 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:50) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 32 for 2 yards (36-B.King). FUMBLES (36-B.King), RECOVERED by NE-55-J.Freeny at BUF 35. 55-J.Freeny to BUF 30 for 5 yards (36-J.Meeks). FUMBLES (36-J.Meeks), ball out of bounds at BUF 30.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NE 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-C.Harper.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 18%

    (10:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NE 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-C.Harper.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:47) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 25 for 4 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (3:34) 2-D.Carpenter 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 16. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 16 for no gain (36-B.King).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins ran ob at BUF 40 for 8 yards.