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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NE 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-C.Harper.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.51 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP