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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 2-D.Carpenter 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.36 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model