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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 36

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP