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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 7 yards (81-M.Easley). BUF-81-M.Easley was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model