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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 17

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP