4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:50) 2-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model