Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 17

(4:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to NE 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model