Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 64

New England Patriots 17 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 32 for 2 yards (36-B.King). FUMBLES (36-B.King), RECOVERED by NE-55-J.Freeny at BUF 35. 55-J.Freeny to BUF 30 for 5 yards (36-J.Meeks). FUMBLES (36-J.Meeks), ball out of bounds at BUF 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model