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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 16

New England Patriots 17 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model