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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins ran ob at BUF 40 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.96 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -1.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model