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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 20 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 16. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 16 for no gain (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.61 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP