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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 2-D.Carpenter 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP