Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 10

(8:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to NE 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 36 for 21 yards (53-N.Bradham; 36-J.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model