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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

NO
50.4%
IND
49.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): -0.018 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO on 3 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
IND 22
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NO

Keenan Lewis CB Out Hip
Andrus Peat T Out Knee
Damian Swann CB Out Concussion
Jairus Byrd S Probable Knee
Ramon Humber LB Probable Thigh
Terron Armstead T Probable Knee
Marques Colston WR Probable Shoulder
Dannell Ellerbe LB Probable Hip
Tim Lelito G Probable Shoulder
Michael Mauti LB Probable Foot
Thomas Morstead P Probable right Quadricep

IND

Mike Adams S Out Hamstring
Clayton Geathers S Doubtful Knee
Jerrell Freeman LB Probable Groin
Nate Irving LB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 27
–
IND 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:35 TD NO (2:35) (Run formation) 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 29-K.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD NO (15:00) 29-K.Robinson right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – IND 0
  • Q2 13:42 TD NO (13:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 84-M.Hoomanawanui for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – IND 0
  • Q3 10:30 TD NO (10:30) (Run formation) 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – IND 0
  • Q3 03:56 TD IND (3:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – IND 6
  • Q3 00:11 TD IND (:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – IND 13
  • Q4 03:10 TD IND (3:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – IND 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to IND 29, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen to IND 40 for 11 yards (30-A.Davis). PENALTY on IND-31-D.McDonald, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 29.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 59 yards to NO 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 20 for 5 yards (51-S.Moore).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to IND 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen. PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 17.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to NO 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 22 for 1 yard (27-W.Guy; 32-C.Anderson).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (2:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-L.McCown pass short left to 82-B.Watson pushed ob at IND 1 for 25 yards (52-D.Jackson) [31-D.McDonald].

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:08) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to NO 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 32 for 12 yards (57-J.McNary). PENALTY on NO-33-J.Sanford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to IND 5, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-20-B.Dixon.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:51) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:58) 1-P.McAfee punts 61 yards to NO 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 28 for 13 yards (37-Z.Tipton; 45-M.Overton).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to IND 31, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 31. 17-G.Whalen to IND 31 for no gain (20-B.Dixon).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 60 yards to NO 26, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 45 for 19 yards (27-W.Guy; 31-D.McDonald). PENALTY on NO-56-M.Mauti, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:10) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to IND 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen to IND 34 for 16 yards (16-B.Coleman).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:26) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to IND 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:38) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to NO 29, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 39 for 10 yards (51-S.Moore). NO-23-M.Murphy was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to IND 18, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen pushed ob at IND 40 for 22 yards (47-J.Drescher).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (9:36) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to NO 1, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-31-D.McDonald.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen to IND 19 for 9 yards (30-A.Davis). FUMBLES (30-A.Davis), recovered by IND-25-T.Carter at IND 19. 25-T.Carter to IND 19 for no gain (53-R.Humber). PENALTY on IND-31-D.McDonald, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 58 yards to NO 38, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 43 for 5 yards (51-S.Moore).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.