Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

(1:58) 1-P.McAfee punts 61 yards to NO 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 28 for 13 yards (37-Z.Tipton; 45-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.90 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model