Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen to IND 19 for 9 yards (30-A.Davis). FUMBLES (30-A.Davis), recovered by IND-25-T.Carter at IND 19. 25-T.Carter to IND 19 for no gain (53-R.Humber). PENALTY on IND-31-D.McDonald, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.19 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model