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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to NO 1, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-31-D.McDonald.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP