Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 20 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to IND 31, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 31. 17-G.Whalen to IND 31 for no gain (20-B.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.23 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model