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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP