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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 20 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to IND 5, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-20-B.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP