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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to IND 18, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen pushed ob at IND 40 for 22 yards (47-J.Drescher).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model