Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to IND 29, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-G.Whalen to IND 40 for 11 yards (30-A.Davis). PENALTY on IND-31-D.McDonald, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model