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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 1-P.McAfee punts 59 yards to NO 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 20 for 5 yards (51-S.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.73 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model