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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-L.McCown pass short left to 82-B.Watson pushed ob at IND 1 for 25 yards (52-D.Jackson) [31-D.McDonald].

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -2.12 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP