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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to NO 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 22 for 1 yard (27-W.Guy; 32-C.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP