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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 60 yards to NO 26, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 45 for 19 yards (27-W.Guy; 31-D.McDonald). PENALTY on NO-56-M.Mauti, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.98 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model