Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to NO 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 23-M.Murphy to NO 32 for 12 yards (57-J.McNary). PENALTY on NO-33-J.Sanford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model