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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CIN
50.2%
LAC
49.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.002 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.175 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CIN on 3 more days rest than LAC
  • LAC offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 25
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Joe Bachie LB Out Hip
Charlie Jones WR Out Groin
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Illness
Orlando Brown T Questionable Knee
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Neck
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Knee

LAC

Khalil Mack DE Questionable Groin
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 27
–
LAC 34

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:31 FG CIN (6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 3 – LAC 0
  • Q1 03:39 TD LAC (3:39) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-W.Dissly for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – LAC 6
  • Q2 12:57 FG CIN (12:57) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 11:09 TD LAC (11:09) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – LAC 13
  • Q2 04:38 TD LAC (4:38) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – LAC 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 11-C.Dicker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. CIN 6 – LAC 24
  • Q3 10:34 FG LAC (10:34) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. CIN 6 – LAC 27
  • Q3 05:31 TD CIN (5:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-22-E.Molden was injured during the play. CIN 12 – LAC 27
  • Q3 02:59 TD CIN (2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – LAC 27
  • Q4 12:28 TD CIN (12:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Tart]. CIN 26 – LAC 27
  • Q4 00:26 TD LAC (:26) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – LAC 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 41%

    (12:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to LAC 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (10:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to CIN 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 36 for 7 yards (36-J.Taylor; 43-T.Dye).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 73%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins to LAC 27 for 8 yards (6-D.Perryman; 29-T.Still). FUMBLES (6-D.Perryman), RECOVERED by LAC-32-A.Gilman at LAC 26. 32-A.Gilman for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins to LAC 27 for 8 yards (29-T.Still). CIN-5-T.Higgins was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (12:57) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:38) 8-R.Rehkow punts 33 yards to LAC 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-32-T.Williams.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (4:38) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:41) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Davis to LAC 21 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:14) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 26 for 17 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:37) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to LAC 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Davis to LAC 41 for 25 yards (87-T.Hudson).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (10:34) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-22-E.Molden was injured during the play.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 56%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 5-T.Higgins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 29%

    (11:52) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to CIN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (7:35) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:36) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 21 for 10 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (1:52) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:34) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 64 yards to LAC 6, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 10 yards (26-T.Anderson).