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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EP