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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.19 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model