Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

(5:36) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 21 for 10 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.24 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model