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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model