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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to CIN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.80 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP