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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to CIN 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 36 for 7 yards (36-J.Taylor; 43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP